Still need a lot of work on my portfolio watchlist, looking to include shares from other developed nations. I'm still paying off the balance transfer faster than I would and I have performed another using Maybank. In addition, I'm on a steep learning curve for my side venture, as I'm gonna do everything DIY instead of letting people do it for me (more costly), let's see how it goes.
- Buy Silverlake Axis at 0.425
- Reasons
- Average down further, but next day drop to 0.405 sian lol
- Buy Keppel-KBS REIT at 0.67
- Reasons
- Rights issue at 0.5, 295 per 1000 shares
- TERP is calculated to be 0.666
- Dividend yield is almost 9%
- At current valuation could be worth it
- Portfolio seems to be Grade A and B offices
- But know the risks that the REIT retention is 60-70% and the WALE is shorter than the rest
- Buy Hong Kong Land at 5.95
- Reasons
- Averaging down due to the drop recently
- I was pretty divided on Hang Lung Properties vs this counter actually. Actually, I still am. But I do believe the Jardines will thrive somewhat. But time will tell if I have made the right choice.
- Sell Axos Financials 25.0 Put for 0.25
- Reasons
- Have been looking at this counter for quite some time.
- A recent drop to around 28, prompted me to take a look, and I realised the premium was 1% as a result.
- Immediately sold a put as a fancy buy order, if it hits, I get the shares I want, if it doesn't, I'll collect the 1% and keep waiting.
- This is my first option sold, I'll keep a record and trend of the Delta and IV to see I get anything useful as time goes by.
- Buy Singapore Exchange at 6.75
- Reasons
- Dividend Yield of 4.2%, which is close to a non crisis low of 4.6%
- PE is 19.9x, which is close to a non crisis low of 19.6x
- There seems to be decent growth in derivatives and the Bursa tie-up seems interesting to me. In fact, maybe I might look at investing there because of YTL recently.
Well, that's all for my money right now. Used up a lot of cash for this month, will save more for the next few months (~20%). My portfolio is being hammered quite badly recently. Makes me wonder if I will be okay sometimes.
Keppel KBS Rights are here, and Ex-Right Prices are below TERP ^^". Wondering how much to apply to.
For those of you who wanna see more information, my SGX portfolio is on SGXCafe too! You can find it here.
Hi Azrael,
ReplyDeleteWould you mind sharing your thoughts if you have a range of your entry price? e.g SGX
I queued at $6.70 but didnt hit and missed out on the gains the following days.
Other than having done your analysis, how do you deal with
1)uncertainty that once you buy in, you are buying in a reasonable price.
2) once you buy, the price goes down even further e.g silverlakeaxis.
Thanks!
Hi Hong Fu,
DeleteThanks for dropping by.
1) My system revolves generally around using historical valuation, frankly it is not perfect, but it gives me more confidence regarding my entry. I use TA to estimate where price will hit, then compare it with a 5 year and 10 year valuation range (ideally at least 2 parameters, which in this case is PE and Yield). In addition, another extra step I look at is any potential future growth that I can see it materialised (Hong Kong Land doesn't fulfill this criteria to be honest, time will tell if I am right I guess). Another way is using the mean valuation to estimate and give a discount (the less growth the more discount).
2) I'm trying to fine tune it, but my take is, if there's nothing fundamentally changed in the business, I would average down after 10-20% drop.
Hope it helps.
Hi Azrael,
DeleteThanks for your reply! Definitely something for me to think about on time in the market vs timing the market.
I would prefer time in the market, but only enter at reasonable (ideally cheap valuations).
DeleteDo realise my method of entry has some limitations i.e Keppel KBS REIT is new, so there isn't much for me to work with, I'm interested in Netlink but I'm trying to figure out what would be a good value for me to enter,
business model/fundamental changes which changes the valuations. So it is something I keep in mind when I am using this.
Kinda like do understand the limitations of your approach, as there's no perfect solutions. I just stick to it for simplicity.
Buying on FA valuations is also technically timing the market, but I believe that buying cheap would help me in getting better returns in the long run as compared to dollar cost averaging.
However, if you dollar cost average, I would recommend using an ETF as companies can go bust while ETFs have survivorship bias.